North Texas Real Estate, Right Now
Home buying across Dallas-Fort Worth shows signs of a real resurgence — but something may prove to impact that progress.
By Russ Anderson, president and CEO, Briggs Freeman Sotheby's International Realty
The North Texas real estate market carried its late-2024 momentum into the first quarter of 2025, building on several quarters of growth. After a prolonged period of subdued activity following the pandemic-era surge, the region shows clear signs of resurgence in both unit sales and dollar volume. However, the ever-evolving presidential policies on global tariffs may prove to impact the marketplace.
A solid start to 2025
Following a year of steady acceleration, the first three months of 2025 have reinforced a trend of recovery and growth. In Q4 2024, nearly every market we serve reported year-over-year increases in unit sales — a pattern that has extended into Q1 2025, especially for homes priced above $1 million. While unit sales for all of 2024 fell just short of overtaking the 2023 total, recent quarterly data confirms that momentum is building. This marks the first prolonged period of consistent unit growth since the market cooled in the second half of 2021. At the same time, closed dollar volume — already trending upward throughout 2024 — has increased in Q1 2025, thanks in part to a surge in sales at the higher end of the market and a continued rise in median prices.
The national perspective aligns with regional gains
National data underscores this local resurgence. The National Association of REALTORS (NAR) reported a seasonally adjusted annual increase in existing home sales of 4.8 percent in late 2024. That trend has continued into 2025, bolstered by improving inventory, employment gains and slightly lower mortgage rates. NAR forecasts a 6-percent increase in existing home sales and a 10-percent increase for new ones.
Inventory is loosening — gradually
Inventory remains historically low but is showing consistent signs of improvement. In fact, rising listing activity became a hallmark of 2024 and continues into 2025. Various forecasts — from NAR to Goldman Sachs — predict a less restricted inventory landscape this year. This easing is already facilitating more transactions in early 2025 and bodes well for further market fluidity. Inventory in the markets we serve now fluctuates between three and five months, meaning how many months it would take for all the current homes on the market to sell. For homes more than $1 million, the range is from five to six months. For perspective, a market is considered balanced when there is about six months’ worth of inventory at any given time.
The market metrics at a glance:
Closed dollar volume: Up year-over-year in Q1 2025
Unit sales: Trending upward across most markets
Median sale prices: Still rising, driven by demand and a higher-tier product mix
New listings: Increasing steadily, supporting better inventory balance
Visit our informative, interactive Market Updates at briggsfreeman.com for a breakdown by county, city and neighborhood. The information could prove very valuable to you.
Prices continue to climb
In line with national expectations, home prices in North Texas are still appreciating, though at a moderated pace. While NAR projects a national price growth of around 2 percent in 2025, many of our markets are outperforming that projection. A stronger mix of high-tier home sales and persistent demand amid limited supply continues to fuel price gains.
Mortgage-rate trends favor buyers
Mortgage rates, a key factor suppressing homeowner movement in past quarters, have begun to decline from their 2023 highs near 8 percent. By the end of Q1 2025, average 30-year fixed rates hovered around 6.5 percent, and projections suggest further declines throughout the year. Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) forecast rates between 6.1 percent and 6.4 percent, while NAR sees the possibility of sub-6-percent levels. This trend is helping unlock both inventory and affordability.
The economic backdrop remains strong for now, but…
Economic conditions have been providing a solid foundation for continued housing growth:
Inflation: Eased to 2.5 percent, closer to the Fed’s target
Federal Reserve: Paused rate hikes in Q1 after three cuts in late 2024
Unemployment: Steady at 4.1 percent, indicating labor-market strength
GDP growth: Estimated at 2.6 percent in Q1 2025, reinforcing consumer confidence
Stock market: Had reached record highs, boosting household wealth and market sentiment
However…
The president’s new tariffs on key imports such as steel, aluminum and Canadian lumber were expected to raise construction costs in North Texas. Builders will likely pass any higher material costs on to buyers, raising home prices and potentially slowing the pace of new housing developments. As a result, affordability could decline further in an already competitive market, putting pressure on both supply and demand in the region.
Beyond construction, the tariffs are contributing to broader economic uncertainty, which may dampen consumer confidence and impact purchasing behavior. With fears of recession and increased market volatility, prospective buyers could become more cautious, particularly if their financial assets are affected. These shifts could affect housing activity through the remainder of 2025 — especially for a fast-growing and development-driven market like North Texas.
Your best source of real estate advice, always? A Briggs Freeman Sotheby’s International Realty advisor — especially for tailored guidance in such an evolving landscape.
Russ Anderson
President and CEO, Briggs Freeman Sotheby’s International Realty
President, Pacific Sotheby’s International Realty
